OFFICIAL 4cast
WINTER EVENT #2

(FRI, 12/7 @ 8:00p EST)

Winter Event #2 may end up being, well...a non-event for the DMV region when all is said and done.  Why?  Because a very strong and expansive area of high pressure over/just north of the DMV region simply will likely not allow a storm coming out of the Deep South/Gulf of Mexico region to do what snow lovers in the area would like it to do, which is come up the east coast in the form of a Nor'easter.  Not only that, but it may be so strong that it (generally speaking) forces the storm out to sea before it can effectively reach most, if not all, of the DMV with any precipitation at all.

OUR OFFICIAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION TOTALS 4CAST

While we don't think the low pressure center will get above the Outer Banks of NC, we do think some moisture will make it into the DMV region (southernmost city of any size is Fredericksburg, VA) as we think model projections continue to underestimate the overall northern edge of the precipitation shield of the storm on the whole.  Here's our take on expected snowfall amounts:

  • Annapolis = 0.1"
  • Baltimore = T
  • Dulles, VA = 0.0"
  • Washington, D.C. = 0.1"
  • Frederick, MD = 0.0"
  • Winchester, VA = 1.0"
  • Waldorf, MD = 0.2"
  • Bel Air, MD = 0.0"
  • Bowie, MD = 0.1"
  • Gaithersburg, MD = 0.0"
  • Columbia, MD = T
  • Fredericksburg, VA = 1.8"
  • North East, MD = 0.0"
  • Easton, MD = 0.1"
  • Cambridge, MD = 0.3"

Bottom line: this is a powerful winter storm that will produce tons of snow to the south of the DMV region with some places in North Carolina receiving 18" or more of accumulations, but with no real path too far up the U.S. East Coast due to the blocking effect of high pressure...it seems as though this storm will be little more than a talking point for the region.

As always, stay tuned for updates just in case anything changes...and, of course, have fun and be safe.

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